A new wing of Maison Capital · Psychometrically groundedSuite Index

Decision Center

Ten Rasch-powered tools for decisions under uncertainty. Each one treats your criteria as polytomous test items, your options as respondents, and recovers a calibrated latent ranking with credible bands — the same mathematics we use for market emotion, applied to choice.

Calibration Layer— Personal priors that feed every other tool

live

Conformal Risk Forecaster

Distribution-free prediction intervals

Temporal Conformal Prediction (arXiv 2507.05470, 2025): walk-forward calibrated, EWMA-adaptive, finite-sample coverage guarantee. No Gaussian assumption. Feeds an honest forecast-uncertainty signal into the auto-trade gate.

Open

live

Risk Tolerance Profiler

Bifactor GPCM behavioral fingerprint

12-item scenario bank → 6-axis posterior (loss/ambiguity/horizon/regret/sunk-cost/social). Saved as a Bayesian prior for downstream tools.

Open

live

Belief Calibration Scorecard

Brier · Murphy · PIT

Log probability forecasts, mark outcomes ✓/✗. Live Brier score, Murphy decomposition (REL − RES + UNC), reliability diagram, PIT histogram. Save the calibration slope as a portable shrinkage prior — every other Decision Center tool that elicits probabilities will use it.

Open

Elicitation Layer— Extract preferences with minimal questioning

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Pairwise Pareto Navigator

Bayesian preference elicitation

Pairwise comparisons → Bradley-Terry-Rasch hybrid → posterior utility. Active info-gain question selection.

Open

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Adaptive Decision Interview

CAT for value elicitation

Fisher-information item selection on a 24-item bank. Optionally consumes the saved Risk Tolerance prior. ~7 answers ≈ a 70-question survey.

Open

Ranking Layer— Order options with calibrated uncertainty

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Market Choice Architect

Autonomous ticker prediction agent

Multi-step agent: picks tickers from a universe, fetches live yfinance data, scores 6 market criteria (momentum/valuation/sentiment/risk/liquidity/regime-fit), runs Rasch + MIRT + Bayesian IRT, predicts top pick with credible bands. Watch every step.

Open

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Choice Architect (generic)

Rasch-calibrated option ranker

The original generic version — treat criteria as IRT items, options as respondents. Useful when your decision is not market-driven.

Open

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Trading Floor

SOTA multi-agent debate (TradingAgents + FinPos)

Four specialist analysts brief two researchers; Bull and Bear debate; Trader sizes the trade aware of your current Portfolio holdings; Risk committee weighs in; Portfolio Manager makes the final 5-tier call (Buy / Overweight / Hold / Underweight / Sell). Every decision is logged and auto-scored against realized returns vs SPY at horizon.

Open

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Trade Review

End-to-end trade lifecycle

Manage every trade in the ecosystem — pending agent recommendations, open positions with live P/L, and the closed ledger. Each trade is joined to the Trading Floor decision that produced it, with an agent ✓/✗ scorecard so you can see exactly when the multi-agent debate was right.

Open

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Portfolio Rebalancer

Volatility-adjusted target allocation

Compares current holdings vs a user-defined target allocation, adjusts targets for live 6-month volatility weighted by your saved risk profile (conservative/balanced/aggressive), and emits concrete buy/sell trades to bring drift inside a per-profile threshold (±3/±5/±8%).

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Product Triage

Multi-stakeholder Tucker conjoint

Score each (feature × stakeholder) cell on six axes (effort, revenue, retention, fit, risk, urgency). Tucker decomposition recovers a clean composite ranking and per-stakeholder partial intensities — useful when product, sales, support and engineering disagree on what matters.

Open

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Roadmap Prioritizer

Wright Map for strategy

Initiatives = items, OKRs = respondents. Rasch PCM places both on a shared logit scale (the Wright Map). Pick initiatives whose difficulty δ matches each OKR's capacity θ — the canonical CAT matching rule, applied to strategy.

Open

Diagnosis Layer— Find hidden structure in noisy decisions

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Path Signature Regime Detector

Rough-path-theoretic regime classification

Depth-3 truncated signature on (log-price, log-volume) paths recovers drift, quadratic variation, Lévy area, and asymmetry. Z-scored vs a 90-day baseline → trending/mean-reverting/volatile/quiet labels. Lyons-style universal feature map; what plain correlations miss, the Lévy area sees.

Open

planned

Equity Auditor

Differential Item Functioning

Fit Rasch per subgroup; flag rubric items with |Δb| > 0.5 logits as biased. ETS-grade fairness.

live

Causal Diagnosis Wizard

IRT for root-cause analysis

18 symptoms across six failure modes. Rasch PCM recovers the dominant latent cause; infit / outfit MSQ flags symptoms that don't fit the leading hypothesis — the canonical signal of a hidden second cause. Bayesian PCM adds 95% credible bands.

Open

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News Catalyst Scanner

Volume × low-float × bullish-trend screen

Screens NASDAQ & Dow universes for the analyst's three-criterion catalyst signature: today's volume ≥ 5× the 50-day average, float under 10M shares, and a bullish 50-DMA trend (price above a rising 50-day moving average). Survivors get recent news headlines attached so you can read the story driving the move.

Open

Real-Time Layer— Live, in-the-moment decision support

planned

Negotiation Coach

Time-sensitive IRT for live bargaining

Each offer scored on 6 axes; latency weights conviction. Walk-away when P(deal<BATNA) > 70%.

House note · architectural

Every tool in this wing routes through the same Rasch / MIRT / Bayesian GPCM / Tucker backend that powers the Emotion Tensor Forge. Calibration outputs (Risk Tolerance, Belief Scorecard) feed forward as Bayesian priors into Elicitation and Ranking. Diagnosis tools surface hidden structure when a decision feels noisy. Real-Time tools update posteriors live as new evidence arrives.